Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.118222 0.133421 0.149852 0.168939 0.190509 0.214141 0.242006
2025-12-21 0.093225 0.112956 0.135857 0.164420 0.199127 0.239981 0.291797
2025-12-28 0.078396 0.101296 0.129641 0.167353 0.216305 0.277833 0.361258
2026-01-04 0.064818 0.088895 0.120529 0.165225 0.226931 0.309388 0.428413
2026-01-11 0.055095 0.079892 0.114343 0.165848 0.241193 0.347863 0.511222
2026-01-18 0.047864 0.073131 0.110123 0.168444 0.258551 0.393268 0.611471
2026-01-25 0.039704 0.063680 0.100536 0.161589 0.260848 0.417012 0.683591
2026-02-01 0.032829 0.055097 0.090926 0.153097 0.259133 0.434159 0.748115
2026-02-08 0.027961 0.048984 0.084297 0.148330 0.262617 0.460062 0.831351
2026-02-15 0.023849 0.043501 0.077879 0.142859 0.263928 0.482315 0.911796
2026-02-22 0.021564 0.040889 0.076041 0.145195 0.279496 0.532068 1.050794
2026-03-01 0.018727 0.036820 0.070956 0.140679 0.281455 0.556790 1.145839
2026-03-08 0.016454 0.033564 0.067065 0.138148 0.287472 0.591434 1.269432
2026-03-15 0.014509 0.030664 0.063447 0.135618 0.293150 0.626476 1.400698
2026-03-22 0.013380 0.029274 0.062675 0.138906 0.311666 0.691368 1.609121
2026-03-29 0.012011 0.027157 0.060064 0.137795 0.320382 0.736519 1.781419
2026-04-05 0.010978 0.025628 0.058502 0.138797 0.334116 0.795318 1.997332
2026-04-12 0.010170 0.024492 0.057652 0.141331 0.351925 0.866673 2.257982
2026-04-19 0.008948 0.022184 0.053746 0.135860 0.349232 0.887990 2.394985
2026-04-26 0.007800 0.019884 0.049523 0.128929 0.341694 0.895964 2.498397
2026-05-03 0.006962 0.018237 0.046668 0.125060 0.341542 0.923079 2.659912
2026-05-10 0.006193 0.016656 0.043749 0.120558 0.338942 0.943279 2.805986
2026-05-17 0.005809 0.016040 0.043254 0.122596 0.354915 1.017402 3.125470